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2009-12-12

中国崛起成21世纪世界最大主题

中国崛起成21世纪世界最大主题 | :U-i^jn  
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据《新闻周刊》观点,现在的事实显示,21世纪前十年的最大主题是:中国崛起。 s]pbz OM  
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恐怖主义不足为患 Skpjw_3o:1  
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“9•11”恐怖袭击发生后,许多专家担心将生活在一个恐怖的时代。美国总统和参议员都在讨论恐怖袭击事件,媒体连篇累牍地报道各种恐怖袭击——从巴厘岛爆炸案到巴基斯坦恐怖训练营。然而随着21世纪前十年即将成为过去,有些事情变得不同。 X@% )5Y  
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首先,恐怖主义不会永远猖獗。一旦全世界注意力都集中到恐怖组织和恐怖分子身上,他们会发现行动更难实施——恐怖分子被特种部队全球追捕;他们的资金来源被追踪,资金链断裂;人员招募受到详细审查等。而除了“基地”组织、塔利班这类组织相当完善的激进组织外,大多数激进团体都属于地方性组织,以对本国的小目标发动袭击为主,包括一些没有保护的咖啡厅、火车站或者地铁等。而恐怖袭击造成大量无辜平民的伤亡,也会使这些组织失去民心。 }K-&A6i+  
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当然,恐怖主义会是一个问题。现代通信技术和暴力手段,让很少人就可以在世界任何地方引起大麻烦。世界将不得不继续反恐,社会也不得不学习抵抗恐怖袭击。但恐怖主义最多只能称为今天世界的一个挑战,而不是明天的主题。 83dX,|alq  
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中国崛起不可避免 N;~JS s~9  
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其次,21世纪前十年的真正发展趋势是中国的崛起,一个第三世界国家摇身一变成为这个世界上第二重要的国家。 T5 WYbyx9  
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1990年的中国还十分不起眼,是一个地道的第三世界国家,人均日收入不足一美元。但正如美国经济学家扎切里•卡拉贝尔在其新书《超级融合》(Superfusion)中所述,中国解冻的时刻来临了。在时任国家领导人邓小平的领导下,中国经济改革不断深入,以实现现代化作为目标,并与西方世界加强联系,发展贸易和科学技术。尽管某些阻碍依然存在,但中国的经济发展脚步却开始加快。 $& ?_`@W/B  
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在过去十年间,中国每年都以超过10% 的经济增长速度成长壮大。中国GDP达到4.8万亿美元,2010年有望成为世界第二大经济体。中国十年间取得的成就超过过去30年的努力,中国工业化步伐是西方的三倍。欧洲用100年时间取得的成就,中国只花了一代人的时间。在这种快速转变中,真正令人感到吃惊地是中国竟然没有发生大规模暴力事件。中国的政治体制和西方国家不同,但许多西方国家在工业化阶段时也都是如此,但却发生了许多暴力事件。其他东亚国家也在工业化道路上前进,但没有一个像中国那样足以改变世界。 ep)|.8>X6  
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中国不仅仅在经济危机中幸存下来,它还在经济危机中繁荣壮大。2009年中国经济增长率高达8.5%,出口已经恢复到 2008年初的高水平,外汇储备达到创纪录的2.3万亿美元。中国的经济刺激计划掀起了新一轮基础设施建设高潮。所有这些成就都是在高效的政府政策驱动下取得的。在全球经济陷入停滞状态前,中国在剩余预算支持下继续前进,并提高利率巩固成就。中国的银行控制消费性开支和信贷。因此,当危机来袭时,中国政府能够调节政策,通过降低利率、增加政府开支、放松信贷、鼓励消费等方式,实现经济跳跃式增长。可以公平地说,在这次全球经济危机中,中国是最大赢家。 ]0r}(IIX  
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现在,一个新的大国正走上世界舞台,这是一个在各个领域都有无限潜力的国家。当然,没有什么事情是绝对的。中国有不安定少数民族,有边境纠纷,面临经济挑战,政治体制也存在一些弊端,或许这些麻烦会在一定程度上阻碍中国发展,但中国无疑仍将成为下一个十年的主要故事。 4drE{SR  
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